Immigration is bound to be a central issue at the next European elections in May 2019. These will see the PPE’s Conservatives, the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals pitted against emerging forces such as the euro-sceptical, “sovereignist” front lead by Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen, and progressive alliances. For the first time, the latter will include trans-national parties, such as for example Yanis Varoufakis’ DiEM 25 or Volt, the movement started by the Erasmus generation, that instead aim to reform the EU from within.
In addition to the election of 750 members of the European Parliament from the 27 Member States, between May and November 2019 the Presidents of the European Parliament, the Commission and the Council, as well as the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy will also come to the end of their terms in office. This change at the top of the Union will contribute to shake up the power dynamics established by Jean-Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk, Antonio Tajani and Federica Mogherini, setting the future direction of the EU. One thing is certain: immigration and the role that the European Union will play in managing migration flows will be thorny issues all candidates will be confronted with.
Some data on turnout
According to official European Parliament data, turnout at the European elections of 2014 was the lowest (42.6%) since 1979. This, however, hides huge national variations from a maximum of 90% in Belgium, to 57% in Italy and a minimum of 13% in Slovakia. Overall, more men than women and people over 55 went to vote. Young people, ethnic minorities and the unemployed were instead largely absent five years ago mostly because of a general lack of trust in politicians and in the role of the European Parliament. This was especially true for young people of whom only 28% voted. The top issues for voters in 2014 were unemployment, weak economic growth in the Union in the aftermath of the economic crisis and immigration.
What can we expect from May 2019? Data from “Democracy on the move” by Eurobarometer give us some indication of current perceptions among European citizens. In the era of fake news, following the UK’s referendum that triggered Brexit and despite the growth of nationalism, the survey reveals the highest level of citizens’ support for the European Union (67%) since 1983. Surprisingly, 48% of Europeans also think they are listened to by the EU. Yet, they associate their intention to vote to a necessary debate on the future of the European Union. With regard to key issues, following the migration ‘emergency’ it is not surprising that citizens currently put immigration and security at the top, with economic wellbeing in second place. Contrary to some negative perceptions, however, a new Eurobarometer survey undertaken in Eurozone countries, reveals that three out of four citizens consider the Euro as a positive thing. Even among Italians, apparently, 57% think that the Euro is positive for Italy, 12% higher than in 2017.
The Spitzenkandidaten
One of the novelties most appreciated by Europeans, according to Eurobarometer, is the “Spitzenkandidaten” procedure launched in 2014. The Spitzenkandidaten are supranational candidates to the presidency of the European Commission selected by European political groups. The objective is to mobilise the European electorate, counteracting the perception of a European Commission lacking in transparency and distant from its citizens. It also aims to strengthen the European Parliament to the detriment, however, of the Council, which is required to nominate the candidate of the political group that wins the largest share of votes in the European elections. For this reason, the procedure has been criticised by some European leaders such as for instance Emmanuel Macron. And the European Liberals, led by Guy Verhofstadt, have also refused to select a single Spitzenkandidat and they plan to present a slate of candidates for the various positions open in Brussels in 2019.
Other groups are instead already aligning their Spitzenkandidaten. The German conservative MEP Manfred Weber was selected by the PPE, currently the largest group in the European Parliament, and the Social Democrats selected the Dutchman Frans Timmermans, who is currently one of the Vice-Presidents of the European Commission. Pragmatic Mr. Weber will need to keep in check Viktor Orban, also a member of the PPE, who declared at the recent PPE Congress in Helsinki that Europe must take responsibility for having been unable to “keep the British in and immigrants out”. Timmermans’ name is instead indissolubly linked with the controversial agreement on immigration he negotiated with Turkey on behalf of the European Union in 2016.
The Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has also been rumoured as a possible Spitzenkandidat for the “sovereignist” front but this has not been confirmed. The European Greens instead selected their two candidates on 25th November at their Congress in Berlin. These are the Dutch Bas Eickhout and the German Ska Keller, both members of the European Parliament. Ska Keller, who was a Spitzenkandidat for the Greens in 2014, has become an important member of the European green and social movement. In her role as spokesperson on migration for the Greens, she has stood up for migrants and refugees, openly criticising Hungary and Slovakia for refusing to accept migrants coming from Italy and Greece.
Finally, it remains to be seen who will replace Donald Tusk at the helm of an increasingly fractious European Council. And who will take the place of Federica Mogherini, who has come to symbolise the EU’s (bad?) management of migration flows since 2014.
NuoveRadici.World will follow the upcoming electoral campaign with a focus on immigration and integration issues.
